Sporting JAXvs
Loudoun United
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/25/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Loudoun United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting JAX 1-4 Loudoun United
Original prediction
Loudoun United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 28.8% | 32.7% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 23.6% | 25.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.6% | 41.4% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Loudoun United
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Loudoun United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40