Sporting JAXvs
Lexington
COMPLETEDUSA · USL Championship · 9/5/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lexington · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting JAX 3-2 Lexington
Original prediction
Lexington
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.36 | 27.2% | 18.5% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.2% | 20.1% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 48.6% | 61.5% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Lexington
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
Lexington has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80