Sporting Gijonvs
Celta de Vigo II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División · 10/4/2026, 2:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Gijon · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sporting Gijon 0-0 Celta de Vigo II, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II
Original prediction
Sporting Gijon
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 59.0% | 43.7% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.7% | 29.8% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 5.35 | 17.4% | 26.5% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Projected Score
Sporting Gijon 0–0 Celta de Vigo II
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Gijon
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Sporting Gijon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80