Sporting Cristalvs
Emelec
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/13/2023, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sporting Cristal are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Emelec are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20