GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 7/13/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Sporting Cristal are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Emelec are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 16.0-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.6% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

42.6%

Model confidence

42.6%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sporting CristalDWDWD

GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EmelecWLDDW

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sporting CristalEmelec
0.0Attack33.3
83.3Defence66.7
16.7Form48.5
36.5Power52.5
0.82xG0.78
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