Sporting Cristalvs
Comerciantes Unidos
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 10/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Cristal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Cristal 4-2 Comerciantes Unidos
Original prediction
Sporting Cristal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 72.0% | 59.5% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 17.8% | 21.0% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 8.99 | 10.2% | 19.5% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Cristal
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Sporting Cristal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80