Sporting Cristalvs
Atletico Grau
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/19/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Cristal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Cristal 3-1 Atletico Grau
Original prediction
Sporting Cristal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 66.9% | 54.3% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 20.3% | 24.8% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 7.17 | 12.8% | 21.0% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Cristal
Probability
54.3%
Model confidence
54.3%
Sporting Cristal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60