Sporting CPvs
Galatasaray
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Champions League · 9/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Galatasaray · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting CP 3-1 Galatasaray
Original prediction
Galatasaray
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 18:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 54.8% | 36.2% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 23.8% | 22.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 4.46 | 21.4% | 41.3% | 20.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Galatasaray
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Galatasaray has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60