Sporting Braga U23vs
Benfica U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting Braga U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sporting Braga U23 4-3 Benfica U23
Original prediction
Sporting Braga U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.7% | 38.7% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.7% | 28.6% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 29.6% | 32.7% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Sporting Braga U23
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Sporting Braga U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20