Sportfreunde Siegenvs
Bonner SC
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - West · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sportfreunde Siegen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sportfreunde Siegen 3-3 Bonner SC
Original prediction
Sportfreunde Siegen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.2% | 42.6% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.2% | 27.5% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 22.6% | 29.9% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Sportfreunde Siegen
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Sportfreunde Siegen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80