Sport Recifevs
Ponte Preta
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 9/11/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sport Recife · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sport Recife 2-0 Ponte Preta, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sport Recife 2-0 Ponte Preta
Original prediction
Sport Recife
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.15 | 80.4% | 79.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 7.14 | 13.0% | 14.7% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 14.10 | 6.6% | 5.6% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Projected Score
Sport Recife 2–0 Ponte Preta
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Sport Recife
Probability
79.7%
Model confidence
79.7%
Sport Recife has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sport RecifeLLWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Ponte PretaLLLLD
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Sport RecifePonte Preta
43.6Attack20.5
66.7Defence30.8
48.7Form12.8
54.9Power25.1
2.12xG0.40