Sport Recifevs
Fortaleza EC
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/16/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sport Recife 0-0 Fortaleza EC, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sport Recife 0-2 Fortaleza EC
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.0% | 36.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 29.1% | 31.1% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 34.8% | 32.4% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Projected Score
Sport Recife 0–0 Fortaleza EC
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.1%
Model confidence
36.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sport RecifeDWWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Fortaleza ECDWDDW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sport RecifeFortaleza EC
45.5Attack39.4
64.6Defence70.7
51.5Form57.6
55.9Power57.8
0.85xG0.77