GGOALVIO

USA · USL League One Cup · 5/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Spokane Velocity · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Spokane Velocity are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Las Vegas Lights are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Spokane Velocity hold a 15.5-point power-rating edge (57.5 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the USL League One Cup, while Spokane Velocity holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Spokane Velocity

Probability

48.6%

Model confidence

13.2%

Spokane Velocity has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Spokane VelocityWDLWW

GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Las Vegas LightsLWDLD

GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Spokane VelocityLas Vegas Lights
46.7Attack33.3
53.3Defence50.0
66.7Form33.3
57.5Power41.9
1.60xG1.05
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