Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spezia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Spezia are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Venezia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Spezia hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (48.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.8% in the Coppa Italia, while Spezia holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spezia
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Spezia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60