Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spezia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Spezia are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Torres are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 52.0 against 53.0. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the Coppa Italia Serie C, while Spezia holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Spezia
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
14.4%
Spezia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00