Spennymoor Townvs
Spalding United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spalding United · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spennymoor Town 1-3 Spalding United
Original prediction
Spalding United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.3% | 23.7% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 25.7% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.7% | 50.6% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Spalding United
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Spalding United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60