Spennymoor Townvs
South Shields
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/27/2026, 7:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Shields · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spennymoor Town 0-1 South Shields
Original prediction
South Shields
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.38 | 20.9% | 20.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.6% | 24.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.6% | 56.0% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
South Shields
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
South Shields has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20