Spennymoor Townvs
Hednesford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hednesford Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spennymoor Town 1-1 Hednesford Town
Original prediction
Hednesford Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.2% | 33.5% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.1% | 24.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.53 | 35.7% | 41.8% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Hednesford Town
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Hednesford Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00