Spennymoor Townvs
Chester
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spennymoor Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spennymoor Town 4-1 Chester
Original prediction
Spennymoor Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.9% | 38.0% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.2% | 27.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 41.0% | 34.2% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Spennymoor Town
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Spennymoor Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40