Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stranraer · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartans 0-2 Stranraer
Original prediction
Stranraer
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 43.4% | 24.9% | -18.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.8% | 18.6% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.8% | 56.5% | 24.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Stranraer
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Stranraer has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpartansDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
StranraerDWDWL
GF 15 · GA 10 · avg 3.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SpartansStranraer
73.3Attack76.7
40.0Defence70.0
50.0Form66.7
54.3Power69.1
1.36xG2.64