Spartak Varnavs
Ludogorets
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 8/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ludogorets · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Varna 1-1 Ludogorets
Original prediction
Ludogorets
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.60 | 16.5% | 18.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 23.1% | 22.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 60.5% | 59.0% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Ludogorets
Probability
59.0%
Model confidence
59.0%
Ludogorets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20