Spartak Varnavs
Lokomotiv Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/20/2026, 12:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Varna · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia
Original prediction
Spartak Varna
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.5% | 47.8% | 12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.5% | 24.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 37.0% | 27.7% | -9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Varna
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Spartak Varna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20