Spartak Varnavs
CSKA Sofia
COMPLETEDBulgaria · First League · 9/5/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSKA Sofia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Varna 1-1 CSKA Sofia
Original prediction
CSKA Sofia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.59 | 16.5% | 16.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.4% | 21.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.53 | 60.1% | 62.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
CSKA Sofia
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
CSKA Sofia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80