Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 23:13
Montana

Montana

Home
LWL
31
Full time
Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven

Away
D
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Spartak Pleven33%
Montana33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Montana
33%
Draw
33%
Spartak Pleven
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Montana
23
Spartak Pleven
9
Defence
Montana
66
Spartak Pleven
91
Momentum
Montana
33
Spartak Pleven
33
Danger (xG)
Montana
0.60
Spartak Pleven
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.72 xG for Montana and 0.99 xG for Spartak Pleven. Spartak Pleven's projected xG of 0.99 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 0 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Montana's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (23). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.71 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 0 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Montana's Defensive Stability (91) and Spartak Pleven's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Montana)
0.60
avg per match
xG for (Spartak Pleven)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Montana)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Spartak Pleven)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
MontanaMontana
LWLLW
Spartak PlevenSpartak Pleven
D

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
Montana33%
Draw33%
Spartak Pleven33%

Spartak Pleven leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Montana Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Montana host Spartak Pleven in Friendlies Clubs. Montana have recorded LLDLWD in recent matches while Spartak Pleven arrive with a run of LWLLLW. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game.

Why GoalVio backs this

The xG model projects 1.72 for Montana and 0.99 for Spartak Pleven. The gap of 0.72 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.

Biggest risk: The draw projection is inherently fragile — a single moment of quality from either side could produce a winner. The model sees no clear favourite, which means the actual result is highly sensitive to in-game events and individual quality.

Risk factors

  • Montana have been conceding 1.73 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Montana

Montana

L
@ Hapoel Petah Tikva
14 Jul 2026
02
W
@ Yantra 2019
7 Jul 2026
20
L
@ Cherno More Varna
3 Jul 2026
01
L
@ Botev Plovdiv
23 Jun 2026
04
W
vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
15 May 2026
52
Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven

D
@ Botev Vratsa
14 May 2026
00

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Montana vs Spartak Pleven?

GoalVio's model predicts Montana to win with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Montana vs Spartak Pleven?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Montana vs Spartak Pleven?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Montana vs Spartak Pleven?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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