Premier LeaguePremier League
Monday, 11 May 2026Last updated 12:39
Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow

Home
DW
21
Full time
Rubin

Rubin

Away
D
Lukoil Arena
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Spartak Moscow(43%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Spartak Moscow
Win probability
Spartak Moscow
43%
Draw
24%
Rubin
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Spartak Moscow
34
Rubin
34
Defence
Spartak Moscow
82
Rubin
66
Momentum
Spartak Moscow
67
Rubin
33
Danger (xG)
Spartak Moscow
0.90
Rubin
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Spartak Moscow)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Rubin)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Spartak Moscow)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Rubin)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow
DW
RubinRubin
DDLWD

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Spartak Moscow43%
Draw24%
Rubin34%

Spartak Moscow leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Spartak Moscow head into this in Premier League fixture at Lukoil Arena in mixed form (DW), while Rubin arrive in mixed form (D). Spartak Moscow have a 50% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Rubin over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Spartak Moscow (82/100) and Rubin (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Spartak Moscow have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game at home. Rubin have won 1 of their last 2 away fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per away game.

Rubin have generated 0.00 xG per game recently while conceding 0.00 xG per match.

Spartak Moscow have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Spartak Moscow to win with 43% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Spartak Moscow 4264%, Draw 2380%, Rubin 3356%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Spartak Moscow 1Draws 00 Rubin
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
11 May 2026
Spartak Moscow
W21
Rubin

Recent form

Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow

D
@ Dinamo Makhachkala
17 May 2026
00
W
vs Rubin
11 May 2026
21
Rubin

Rubin

D
vs KAMAZ
26 Jun 2026
11
D
vs Nizhny Novgorod
17 May 2026
22
L
@ Spartak Moscow
11 May 2026
12
W
@ Baltika
2 May 2026
10
xG 0.0
D
vs CSKA Moscow
25 Apr 2026
00
xG 0.0

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?

GoalVio's model predicts Spartak Moscow to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more