Spartak Moscowvs
Rodina Moskva
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 9/2/2026, 5:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Moscow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Moscow 3-1 Rodina Moskva
Original prediction
Spartak Moscow
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 73.9% | 52.3% | -21.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.92 | 15.8% | 23.5% | 7.7 pts |
| Away | 9.04 | 10.3% | 24.2% | 13.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Moscow
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Spartak Moscow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80