Spartak Moscowvs
FC Orenburg
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 8/30/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Moscow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Moscow 1-1 FC Orenburg
Original prediction
Spartak Moscow
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.6% | 56.0% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.19 | 18.3% | 23.6% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 7.86 | 12.1% | 20.4% | 8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Moscow
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Spartak Moscow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60