Spartak Moscowvs
Fakel
COMPLETEDRussia · Premier League · 9/16/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Moscow · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Moscow 1-0 Fakel
Original prediction
Spartak Moscow
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.3% | 56.6% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.95 | 19.1% | 23.2% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 8.19 | 11.6% | 20.2% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Moscow
Probability
56.6%
Model confidence
56.6%
Spartak Moscow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40