Spartak Moscow 2vs
Zvezda St. Petersburg
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Moscow 2 · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Moscow 2 2-3 Zvezda St. Petersburg
Original prediction
Spartak Moscow 2
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 18:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 48.2% | 39.9% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.3% | 29.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 26.6% | 30.6% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Moscow 2
Probability
39.9%
Model confidence
39.9%
Spartak Moscow 2 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 18 · avg 0.80/3.60