Spartak Moscow 2vs
Baltika II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 2 · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baltika II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Moscow 2 2-3 Baltika II
Original prediction
Baltika II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.2% | 17.7% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.6% | 23.2% | -6.4 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 39.2% | 59.1% | 19.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–214%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Baltika II
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Baltika II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20