Spartak Kostromavs
Chelyabinsk
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 10/13/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spartak Kostroma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spartak Kostroma 1-0 Chelyabinsk
Original prediction
Spartak Kostroma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.6% | 39.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.0% | 28.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 31.4% | 32.5% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Spartak Kostroma
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Spartak Kostroma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00