Sparta Rotterdamvs
Willem II
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Rotterdam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II
Original prediction
Sparta Rotterdam
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 59.0% | 62.9% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 21.6% | 18.4% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.85 | 19.4% | 18.8% | -0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Rotterdam
Probability
62.9%
Model confidence
62.9%
Sparta Rotterdam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60