Sparta Rotterdamvs
Heerenveen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 9/19/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Rotterdam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 Heerenveen
Original prediction
Sparta Rotterdam
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 39.2% | 40.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.1% | 24.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 35.7% | 35.4% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Rotterdam
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Sparta Rotterdam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80