Sparta Rotterdamvs
Ajax
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 10/25/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (8%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax
Original prediction
Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.98 | 15.7% | 14.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.00 | 18.8% | 14.6% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 65.5% | 71.3% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Ajax
Probability
71.3%
Model confidence
71.3%
Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Sparta RotterdamWDLLD
GF 9 · GA 15 · avg 1.80/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AjaxWWLDD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Sparta RotterdamAjax
59.3Attack100.0
18.5Defence55.6
33.3Form66.7
39.3Power71.3
1.58xG3.92