Sparta Prahavs
Pardubice
COMPLETEDCzech-Republic · Czech Liga · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Praha · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Praha 2-0 Pardubice
Original prediction
Sparta Praha
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.32 | 69.9% | 65.1% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.12 | 18.0% | 19.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 7.59 | 12.1% | 15.0% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Praha
Probability
65.1%
Model confidence
65.1%
Sparta Praha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 4 · avg 3.80/0.80
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60