Sparta Prahavs
Lillestrom
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Praha · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom
Original prediction
Sparta Praha
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 71.0% | 51.0% | -20.0 pts |
| Draw | 5.45 | 17.4% | 25.1% | 7.8 pts |
| Away | 8.21 | 11.6% | 23.8% | 12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Praha
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Sparta Praha has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60