Sparta Katowicevs
Warta Gorzów
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 10/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sparta Katowice 2-0 Warta Gorzów, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Katowice 1-1 Warta Gorzów
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.6% | 57.1% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 22.1% | 23.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.98 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Projected Score
Sparta Katowice 2–0 Warta Gorzów
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60