Sparta Katowicevs
ROW Rybnik
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 10/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Katowice 2-0 ROW Rybnik
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 52.8% | 61.3% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.0% | 20.1% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.2% | 18.6% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20