Sparta Katowicevs
Polonia Nysa
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 9/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Katowice 4-0 Polonia Nysa
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.8% | 61.4% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.2% | 21.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.08 | 22.0% | 17.3% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.67 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
61.4%
Model confidence
61.4%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00