Sparta Brnovs
Ždírec nad Doubravou
COMPLETEDCzech-Republic · 4. liga - Divizie D · 10/3/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Brno · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sparta Brno 3-1 Ždírec nad Doubravou
Original prediction
Sparta Brno
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.7% | 37.9% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.6% | 27.2% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.85 | 23.6% | 34.9% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Brno
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Sparta Brno has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00