Spalding Unitedvs
Bury Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spalding United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spalding United 4-0 Bury Town
Original prediction
Spalding United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 20:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.1% | 39.4% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.1% | 27.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.8% | 33.2% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Spalding United
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Spalding United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80