Spalding Unitedvs
Alvechurch
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spalding United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spalding United 2-2 Alvechurch
Original prediction
Spalding United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.9% | 42.3% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.8% | 25.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.90 | 23.3% | 32.1% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Spalding United
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Spalding United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00