Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Spal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Ascoli are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Ascoli hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (40.6 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.9% in the Serie C - Girone B, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40