Spakenburgvs
AFC Amsterdam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Tweede Divisie · 10/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spakenburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spakenburg 2-1 AFC Amsterdam
Original prediction
Spakenburg
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.4% | 44.8% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 20.7% | 23.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.34 | 21.0% | 32.1% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Spakenburg
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Spakenburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60