Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spain 3-1 Czechia
Original prediction
Spain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.06 | 89.9% | 60.6% | -29.4 pts |
| Draw | 13.28 | 7.2% | 21.0% | 13.8 pts |
| Away | 33.40 | 2.9% | 18.4% | 15.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Spain
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Spain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpainWWWDD
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CzechiaLLWWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SpainCzechia
100.0Attack16.7
50.0Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
85.5Power21.5
1.95xG0.92