Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spain · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Spain 4-1 Croatia
Original prediction
Spain
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.21 | 78.1% | 60.7% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.82 | 13.9% | 20.5% | 6.7 pts |
| Away | 11.83 | 8.0% | 18.8% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Spain
Probability
60.7%
Model confidence
60.7%
Spain has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SpainWWDDW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CroatiaWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SpainCroatia
83.3Attack41.7
50.0Defence58.3
73.3Form45.8
70.5Power50.9
2.13xG1.09