Spain leads with 46% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Match insights

Spain head into this in World Cup fixture at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in outstanding form (WWWWW), while Cape Verde Islands arrive finding it hard to convert draws into wins (LDDD). Spain have a 88% win rate across their last 8 matches, compared to 0% for Cape Verde Islands over 4 games.

The model rates Spain's attack at 64/100 against a 56/100 Cape Verde Islands defence, and Cape Verde Islands's attack at 34/100 against a 89/100 Spain backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Spain have won all 3 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game at home. Cape Verde Islands have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 4 away matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game.

Spain have generated 2.42 xG per game recently while conceding 0.43 xG per match. Cape Verde Islands have generated 1.15 xG per game recently while conceding 1.27 xG per match.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 0.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Spain to win with 49% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Spain 4610%, Draw 2470%, Cape Verde Islands 2910%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Recent form

Spain

W

vs Argentina

19 Jul 2026

1–0

W

@ France

14 Jul 2026

2–0

W

vs Belgium

10 Jul 2026

2–1

xG 2.0

W

@ Portugal

6 Jul 2026

1–0

W

vs Austria

2 Jul 2026

3–0

xG 2.8

Cape Verde Islands

L

@ Argentina

3 Jul 2026

2–3

D

vs Saudi Arabia

27 Jun 2026

0–0

xG 1.5

D

@ Uruguay

21 Jun 2026

2–2

xG 0.8

D

@ Spain

15 Jun 2026

0–0

D

@ Egypt

17 Nov 2025

1–1

Frequently asked questions

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