Southportvs
Spennymoor Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southport · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southport 2-2 Spennymoor Town
Original prediction
Southport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.0% | 45.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.4% | 25.6% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.6% | 28.5% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.32 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Southport
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Southport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40