Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southport · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southport 0-2 Radcliffe
Original prediction
Southport
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.0% | 54.8% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.6% | 22.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.4% | 23.3% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Southport
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Southport has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthportLDLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RadcliffeWLLLW
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SouthportRadcliffe
43.3Attack30.0
33.3Defence33.3
30.0Form20.0
37.5Power29.7
1.90xG1.07