Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southport 2-1 Morecambe
Original prediction
Morecambe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 31.4% | 24.9% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 27.3% | 25.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 41.3% | 49.9% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
49.9%
Model confidence
49.9%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthportLLLWD
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MorecambeWWWLL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SouthportMorecambe
42.9Attack42.9
28.6Defence71.4
23.8Form47.6
33.3Power54.3
0.92xG1.66