Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
14%
MediumconfidenceSouthport are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Hereford are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Hereford hold a 8.3-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 13.5% confidence, a 56% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.4%
Model confidence
13.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthportLWLLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
HerefordLDWWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SouthportHereford
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
15.3Power23.7
1.42xG1.28