Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hereford · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southport 0-1 Hereford
Original prediction
Hereford
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.3% | 28.1% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.8% | 24.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 34.9% | 47.8% | 12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Hereford
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Hereford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthportLWDDL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
HerefordDWWWL
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SouthportHereford
60.0Attack60.0
20.0Defence80.0
33.3Form66.7
38.7Power68.5
1.20xG2.06